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The same questions on Polymarket and Kalshi, priced side by side. The gap is how many points apart the two venues put an outcome. The lock is what holding Yes on one venue and No on the other would cost: $1 comes back either way, so a lock under $1 after fees is a profit fixed in at settlement, if the two markets truly settle on the same thing.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API and Kalshi's event search, refreshed every minute. The venues don't link their markets, so pairs are found by wording: titles have to share their meaningful words and may not name a different party, office, place, month, year or number, and each outcome is paired by name, count, deadline or rate move - an outcome that pairs on none of those is left out rather than guessed. Crypto and sports markets aren't paired at all, since the venues settle them at different times against different sources. Gaps of more than 30 points are dropped as two questions that only read alike. The lock uses each venue's best ask - the No ask is one minus the best Yes bid - and adds both venues' taker fees on the two legs, each a share of p × (1 − p) per contract: 7% on Kalshi, and on Polymarket the market's own published rate (4% to 5% on most, none on geopolitics). Kalshi's Yes and No prices are read from its trade API, to the tenth of a cent its long shots trade in. A lock also ties up the cash until the market settles, which on a 2028 election is years. Read both markets' rules before trading a gap: the same words can settle on different sources or dates.