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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50,000.00 | 10% | +1 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $6.34K | in 68d |
| Below $55,000.00 | 11% | +1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $3.17K | in 68d |
| Below $45,000.00 | 5% | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $701 | in 68d |
| Below $40,000.00 | 5% | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $47 | in 68d |
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If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for Below $50,000.00 means the market gives it about 10%.