Kalshi · Economy

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Leading: Fed maintains rate86% · −1 pts today
24h volume: $114K
Total volume: $12.5M
Outcomes: 5
Ends: Oct 28, 2026

Odds over time

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Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	Bid · Ask	24h volume	Ends
Fed maintains rate	86%	−1 pts	86¢ · 87¢ (1¢)	$73.2K	in 9d
Hike 25bps	14%	+1 pts	13¢ · 14¢ (1¢)	$24.5K	in 9d
Cut >25bps	1%	0 pts	0¢ · 1¢ (1¢)	$1.95K	in 9d
Cut 25bps	1%	0 pts	0¢ · 1¢ (1¢)	$13.3K	in 9d
Hike >25bps	1%	0 pts	0¢ · 1¢ (1¢)	$1.4K	in 9d

Also on Polymarket

Fed Decision in October?

Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap	Lock $1 for
Fed maintains rate	87%	86%	2 pts	$1.014
Hike 25bps	14%	14%	0 pts	$1.014
Cut 25bps	1%	<1%	1 pts	$1.008
Hike >25bps	1%	<1%	1 pts	$1.008
Cut >25bps	1%	<1%	1 pts	—

Whale trades

$1,000 and up · top 3 outcomes, since 7d ago

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How this market settles

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 86¢ for Fed maintains rate means the market gives it about 86%.

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