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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5% | 85% | −3 pts | 84¢ · 85¢ (1¢) | $2.75K | in 11d |
| Above 3.0% | 62% | −3 pts | 60¢ · 63¢ (3¢) | $1.66K | in 11d |
| Above 3.5% | 33% | −6 pts | 32¢ · 34¢ (2¢) | $867 | in 11d |
| Above 2.0% | 90% | −1 pts | 89¢ · 90¢ (1¢) | $160 | in 11d |
| Above 0.0% | 99% | 0 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 11d |
| Above 0.5% | 99% | 0 pts | 98¢ · 100¢ (2¢) | $0 | in 11d |
| Above 1.0% | 96% | 0 pts | 96¢ · 99¢ (3¢) | $0 | in 11d |
| Above 1.5% | 95% | 0 pts | 94¢ · 97¢ (3¢) | $0 | in 11d |
| Above 4.0% | 20% | 0 pts | 20¢ · 23¢ (3¢) | $0 | in 11d |
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If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 85¢ for Above 2.5% means the market gives it about 85%.