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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $47.8K | in 11d |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5% | +1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $13.2K | in 39d |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | 0 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $5.16K | in 74d |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 22% | +1 pts | 21¢ · 25¢ (4¢) | $1.76K | in 193d |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 49% | +1 pts | 48¢ · 49¢ (1¢) | $683 | in 435d |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 41% | +1 pts | 40¢ · 41¢ (1¢) | $675 | in 410d |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 18% | 0 pts | 17¢ · 18¢ (1¢) | $651 | in 160d |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 16% | +2 pts | 13¢ · 17¢ (4¢) | $621 | in 130d |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 55% | +1 pts | 55¢ · 59¢ (4¢) | $484 | in 617d |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 42% | +1 pts | 41¢ · 42¢ (1¢) | $122 | in 375d |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 37% | −2 pts | 36¢ · 37¢ (1¢) | $107 | in 347d |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 32% | +1 pts | 31¢ · 32¢ (1¢) | $56.8 | in 251d |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 9% | −1 pts | 8¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | $27.9 | in 102d |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 60% | −1 pts | 59¢ · 60¢ (1¢) | $22.3 | in 801d |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25% | 0 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 228d |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 33% | 0 pts | 32¢ · 33¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 284d |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 34% | 0 pts | 33¢ · 34¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 319d |
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If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Before Nov 1, 2026 means the market gives it about 2%.