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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $146K | in 8d |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 25% | +9 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $3.49K | in 128d |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | 0 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $1.29K | in 69d |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 6% | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $385 | in 38d |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 33% | 0 pts | 32¢ · 33¢ (1¢) | $251 | in 434d |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37% | 0 pts | 36¢ · 37¢ (1¢) | $110 | in 819d |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 16% | 0 pts | 13¢ · 16¢ (3¢) | $84.4 | in 100d |
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If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Before Nov 1, 2026 means the market gives it about 2%.