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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd hottest | 100% | +2 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1st hottest | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 2nd hottest | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lower | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 343d | Abandoned-Counsel | 1st hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,035 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 343d | 0x955c…990f | 3rd hottest | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,429 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 343d |  aenews22 fills | 1st hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,631 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 343d | influenz.eth2 fills | 2nd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,226 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 343d | aenews23 fills | 3rd hottest | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,224 | +$54 +0.7% | 4 |
| 345d | njnimkb59l4ap | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,512 | +$32 +0.9% | 4 |
| 345d | dkagm08dpndgj | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,514 | +$32 +0.9% | 4 |
| 345d | eswmth2viru7w | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,511 | +$39 +1.1% | 4 |
| 345d | rqpamyzio3zdl | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,501 | +$39 +1.1% | 4 |
| 348d | influenz.eth | Lower | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,135 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 348d | wokerjoesleeper | Lower | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,431 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 348d | nothingspec | 3rd hottest | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,397 | +$53 +1.2% | 4 |
| 348d | influenz.eth | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$8 +0.7% | 4 |
| 348d | xujiwk7pvdhc | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,499 | +$32 +0.9% | 4 |
| 348d | imgrcifum4qo | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,504 | +$32 +0.9% | 4 |
| 364d |  gopfan2 | 2nd hottest | SellNo>99¢ | $1,138 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 368d | pushpushino3 fills | 1st hottest | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,420 | +$157 +2.9% | 4 |
| 375d |  sorcerer.01 | 1st hottest | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | +$106 +7.0% | 4 |
| 377d |  Oompa-Loompa | 1st hottest | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$57 +3.7% | 4 |
| 378d | gopfan2 | 2nd hottest | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$47 +4.2% | 4 |
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 3rd hottest means the market gives it about 100%.