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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Arjun Erigaisi | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | 100% | +1 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Vincent Keymer | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Magnus Carlsen | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Alireza Firouzja | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Hans Niemann | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Ian Nepomniachtchi | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 281d | Palace8709 | Nodirbek Abdusattorov | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,232 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 295d |  fElon | Nodirbek Abdusattorov | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,054 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 296d | iamgone2 fills | Hikaru Nakamura | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,344 | +$39 +0.2% | 4 |
| 311d |  JaidenAnimations | Hikaru Nakamura | SellYes100¢ | $1,030 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 312d | fElon | Vincent Keymer | BuyNo100¢ | $1,180 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 |
| 312d | JaidenAnimations | Hikaru Nakamura | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,034 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". A player will be considered to have qualified if they officially earn a place in the tournament under FIDE’s rules, regardless of whether they subsequently decline, withdraw, or otherwise do not participate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Hikaru Nakamura means the market gives it about 100%.