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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | makeadream | December 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,043 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $15,532 | −$425 −2.7% | — | |
| 308d | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,875 | +$439 +3.4% | 20 | |
| 323d | vladk2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,670 | +$869 +11% | 20 |
| 326d | MamaMoore | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,279 | +$297 +23% | 20 |
| 328d | akoros28 | November 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$46 +1.8% | 20 |
| 329d | Huludubu | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | +$390 +20% | 20 |
| 329d | November 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,112 | −$80 −3.8% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.