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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 597d | Ordon | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,736 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 598d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $7,583 | +$1,143 +15% | 7 | |
| 598d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,661 | +$13 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 598d | elkamello | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$40 −3.0% | — |
| 599d | ChampaLiberation2 fills | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,696 | +$204 +7.6% | 6 |
| 599d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,961 | +$354 +7.1% | 6 | |
| 599d | elkamello | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,725 | +$127 +7.3% | 4 |
| 600d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $3,585 | +$763 +21% | 7 | |
| 600d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | +$149 +9.2% | 4 | |
| 601d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$89 +8.9% | 4 | |
| 601d | Drowerz | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,802 | −$199 −11% | — |
| 602d | nurpz | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$123 +12% | 4 |
| 604d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | +$255 +17% | 6 | |
| 604d | Nyxorien | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $32,074 | +$32,074 +100% | — |
| 604d | Nyxorien | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $32,461 | −$32,461 −100% | 20 |
| 605d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyNo46¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$1,610 +115% | 9 | |
| 605d | Mara3 fills | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $9,478 | −$9,478 −100% | 4 |
| 606d | Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $1,936 | −$1,936 −100% | 4 |
On February 17, Delta Air Lines Flight 4819, crashed while landing with all 80 people on board evacuated (see: https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/statements/accident_incidents#Top) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the FAA reports an incident on a commercial flight resulting in an evacuation between February 18, and February 28, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any incident dated to the listed range on https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/statements/accident_incidents will qualify. Only incidents which result in an evacuation as described by the FAA, or in which passengers were forced to exit the aircraft in in an unconventional manner (e.g. using slides, while on the runway, etc.) qualify. The resolution source will be the FAA, specifically https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/statements/accident_incidents
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.