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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| October 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · 1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357d |  elmcap2 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,708 | +$17 +1.0% | 4 |
| 357d | hindu | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$10 +1.0% | 4 |
| 357d | torrest | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$22 +2.0% | 4 |
| 370d | amused85 | October 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | −$147 −8.4% | — |
| 388d | esac | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,389 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 389d | elmcap23 fills | September 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,837 | +$335 +6.9% | 4 |
| 389d | szakal | September 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,357 | −$60 −4.4% | — |
| 390d | torrest2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,481 | +$193 +7.8% | 4 |
| 391d | Rainbow-Jereme | September 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$49 +2.5% | 4 |
| 403d | koryakovsky | September 30 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | +$269 +24% | 4 |
| 404d | amused85 | September 30 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | +$468 +27% | 4 |
| 404d | Zig69Zag | September 30 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $4,615 | +$1,295 +28% | 4 |
| 404d | Anon5566 | September 30 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$365 +30% | 4 |
NotTruthTerminal25 sharesNATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on September 10. For more information see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government or military of Poland reports another Russian aerial vehicle (e.g., aircraft, drone) violated Polish airspace between September 12, 4 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official announcements by the Polish government (e.g., press releases or statements published on official government websites).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 0%.