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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 636d | Heldenkampf | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$56 −5.6% | — |
| 654d |  Libitum | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | −$327 −21% | — |
| 659d |  mr.ozi | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$355 +31% | 4 |
| 661d |  gopfan2 | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $2,603 | +$1,481 +57% | 4 |
| 662d | Libitum | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$736 +52% | 4 |
| 663d |  SpangledorpSqueegebleege | Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before February? | BuyYes29¢ → 0¢ | $2,006 | −$2,006 −100% | 7 |
On December 18, 2024, Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in California over the H5N1 bird flu outbreak. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/osint613/status/1869497993977823355 This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of emergency directly related to an outbreak of H5N1 is declared in any state other than California by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be announcements from the relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.