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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump by 4.0%+ | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 3.0-4.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 2.0-3.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1.0-2.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0-1% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0-1.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.0-2.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2.0-3.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 3.0-4.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 4%+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 696d |  Infringe | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,935 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d |  lranon | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,803 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d |  pirateshere | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,322 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | rpo | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,988 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | longtern | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,115 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d |  noreasapa | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,502 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 698d |  beigesun | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,290 | +$10 +0.4% | 4 |
| 699d |  elmcap2 | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,956 | +$14 +0.7% | 4 |
| 700d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,781 | −$28 −1.0% | — |
| 701d |  kytszkyrzkytzytxzkytxt | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,970 | −$76 −1.9% | — |
| 703d |  Rasalgethi | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,662 | +$38 +0.8% | 4 |
| 704d | Nowhere-Man | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,964 | −$36 −1.8% | — |
| 706d | almost-never | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,640 | −$60 −1.3% | — |
| 709d | almost-never | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,826 | +$60 +1.0% | 4 |
| 709d | TrumpPump | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 709d | 456ythgbvcadscvb | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$12 +1.1% | 4 |
| 710d |  scottilicious3 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,978 | +$93 +1.2% | 4 |
| 710d |  sorcerer.02 | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,267 | +$31 +1.4% | 4 |
| 710d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe32 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,445 | +$95 +2.1% | 4 |
| 710d | kytszkyrzkytzytxzkytxt2 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,504 | +$36 +1.0% | 4 |
| 711d | kocinakn | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,513 | −$189 −2.2% | — |
| 711d | tanguero24 | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$13 +1.2% | 4 |
| 713d | egger | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,680 | −$94 −2.6% | — |
| 713d |  50Whence | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,632 | +$74 +2.0% | 4 |
| 714d | dciaravino | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,921 | −$771 −16% | — |
| 715d | dciaravino | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,358 | +$49 +2.1% | 4 |
| 717d | 8BlocksCapital2 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,543 | +$1,011 +40% | 4 |
| 717d | 8BlocksCapital | Harris by 0-1.0% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,866 | +$119 +6.4% | 4 |
| 717d |  TruthSearUm | Trump by 4.0%+ | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | −$1,440 −69% | — |
| 717d | 0xfe91…70ff | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | −$1,340 −100% | 4 |
| 717d | egger | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$1,631 +135% | 4 |
| 718d | kocinakn | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes35¢ → 100¢ | $3,046 | +$5,656 +186% | 15 |
| 720d | sonnyf2 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $9,000 | −$9,000 −100% | 6 |
| 720d | allen111 | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 9 |
| 732d |  redbloodzcell | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,144 | −$1,144 −100% | 4 |
| 732d | marketguy123123 | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | +$2,187 +170% | 5 |
| 733d |  New.Jeans | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,920 | −$1,920 −100% | 4 |
This is a market on the margin of victory for the Arizona election.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Trump by 4.0%+ means the market gives it about 100%.