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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274d |  elreptil3 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $13,000 | +$570 +4.4% | 20 |
| 278d | Huludubu2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,579 | −$73 −2.8% | — |
| 280d |  MasonsConqueredRome | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,386 | +$200 +8.4% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.