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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Game Spread +/-5.5 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Completed Match | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% | +23 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 Winner | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 23.5 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 Winner | 100% | +10 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 21.5 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 22.5 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +32 pts | — | 83¢ · 100¢ (17¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +59 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | Tedious-Purchase | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,975 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | makizinchers | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,071 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | neverin2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $4,603 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | 0F622 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz93¢ → 100¢ | $7,869 | +$584 +7.4% | 4 |
| 21d | UpTheBlues | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz95¢ → 100¢ | $3,527 | +$186 +5.3% | 4 |
| 21d | Laoxiong | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz95¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$68 +5.3% | 4 |
| 21d | User.0xE | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | SellCarlos Alcaraz94¢ → 100¢ | $3,251 | −$208 −6.4% | — |
| 21d | neverin | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $4,193 | +$415 +9.9% | 5 |
| 21d | Tedious-Purchase | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz69¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$613 +45% | 6 |
| 21d | User.0xE | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$400 +25% | 5 |
| 21d | Exalted-Evocation | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$978 +20% | 5 |
| 21d | MilesY | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyMatteo Arnaldi22¢ → 0¢ | $4,200 | −$4,200 −100% | 6 |
| 21d | MilesY | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | SellCarlos Alcaraz76¢ → 100¢ | $4,270 | −$1,348 −32% | — |
| 21d | Flaznorp | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz82¢ → 100¢ | $6,713 | +$1,474 +22% | 5 |
| 21d | MilesY | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz89¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$618 +12% | 5 |
| 21d | HomeRunHazard3 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz94¢ → 100¢ | $9,927 | +$603 +6.1% | 4 |
| 21d | Momo63 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz96¢ → 100¢ | $5,001 | +$208 +4.2% | 4 |
| 21d | lhetorar | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz96¢ → 100¢ | $3,810 | +$159 +4.2% | 4 |
| 21d | Exalted-Evocation | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | BuyCarlos Alcaraz85¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$256 +17% | 5 |
| 21d | Worrisome-Winery | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz93¢ → 100¢ | $1,416 | +$107 +7.5% | 4 |
| 21d | pacopaquitopaco | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz93¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$93 +7.5% | 4 |
| 21d | SplendidAmadeus | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz93¢ → 100¢ | $8,265 | +$623 +7.5% | 4 |
| 21d | dv-pm | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyMatteo Arnaldi9¢ → 0¢ | $1,279 | −$1,279 −100% | 4 |
| 22d | 0000. | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | BuyCarlos Alcaraz92¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$870 +8.7% | 4 |
| 22d | fastball67 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Game Spread +/-5.5 | BuyCarlos Alcaraz59¢ → 100¢ | $2,698 | +$1,875 +69% | 4 |
TRCM3,328 shares
no1dodgersfan2,895 sharesThis market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi means the market gives it about 100%.