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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | 100% | +21 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 Winner | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Completed Match | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 21.5 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% | +39 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 23.5 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 Winner | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 22.5 | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | phredmoz | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev>99¢ | $2,100 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | madkkee | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev>99¢ | $5,996 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | chenfeng999 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21d |  hd777 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev>99¢ | $1,003 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 21d | Ancient-Infarction | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev>99¢ | $1,516 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 21d | neutralwave23 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev94¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | −$74 −6.4% | — |
| 21d | Illiasca | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellDaniil Medvedev94¢ → 100¢ | $1,679 | −$107 −6.4% | — |
| 21d | Kkunn | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | SellPablo Carreno Busta6¢ → 0¢ | $1,365 | +$1,365 +100% | — |
| 21d | Ancient-Infarction | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev92¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$122 +8.7% | 5 |
| 21d | Caonima1 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev83¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$287 +20% | 5 |
| 21d | Eddd1x | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev84¢ → 100¢ | $3,737 | +$712 +19% | 5 |
| 21d | Kkunn | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyPablo Carreno Busta17¢ → 0¢ | $4,000 | −$4,000 −100% | 6 |
| 21d | MilesY | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev84¢ → 100¢ | $4,126 | +$786 +19% | 5 |
| 21d | Illiasca | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev84¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$286 +19% | 5 |
| 21d | phredmoz | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev84¢ → 100¢ | $1,765 | +$336 +19% | 5 |
| 21d | myxi | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev84¢ → 100¢ | $2,799 | +$533 +19% | 5 |
| 21d | chenfeng999 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev82¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$234 +22% | 5 |
| 21d |  coinlaundry2 fills | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev82¢ → 100¢ | $21,729 | +$4,770 +22% | 5 |
| 21d | omnibus-076daa | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyPablo Carreno Busta19¢ → 0¢ | $1,388 | −$1,388 −100% | 6 |
| 21d | UpTheBlues | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyPablo Carreno Busta18¢ → 0¢ | $1,025 | −$1,025 −100% | 6 |
| 21d | madkkee | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev82¢ → 100¢ | $2,280 | +$500 +22% | 5 |
| 21d |  no1dodgersfan | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev81¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | +$497 +23% | 5 |
| 22d | pacopaquitopaco | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev81¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$235 +23% | 5 |
| 22d | ferrariChampions2026 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev80¢ → 100¢ | $4,739 | +$1,185 +25% | 5 |
| 24d | Awful-Forestry | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BuyDaniil Medvedev81¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$480 +24% | 4 |
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta means the market gives it about 100%.