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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Game Spread +/-5.5 | 0% | −41 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% | +42 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Completed Match | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 Winner | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 22.5 | 0% | −41 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 23.5 | 0% | −39 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 21.5 | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 Winner | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +26 pts | — | 84¢ · 100¢ (16¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +54 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | +75 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d | Immense-Sitar | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | SellAlex de Minaur>99¢ | $2,243 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 23d | Winerius | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$86 +1.7% | 4 |
| 23d | lhetorar | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur95¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | +$100 +5.3% | 4 |
| 23d | Immense-Sitar | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur84¢ → 100¢ | $1,886 | +$359 +19% | 5 |
| 23d | HomeRunHazard2 fills | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyMariano Navone20¢ → 0¢ | $2,461 | −$2,461 −100% | 6 |
| 23d | HomeRunHazard2 fills | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur82¢ → 100¢ | $9,635 | +$2,174 +23% | 5 |
| 23d | simpson10 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur87¢ → 100¢ | $2,536 | +$379 +15% | 5 |
| 23d | UpTheBlues | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur77¢ → 100¢ | $2,536 | +$758 +30% | 6 |
| 23d | Kkunn | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyMariano Navone25¢ → 0¢ | $5,734 | −$5,734 −100% | 6 |
| 23d | Exalted-Evocation | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur77¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$747 +30% | 6 |
| 23d |  XDownloadtrump | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur79¢ → 100¢ | $4,932 | +$1,311 +27% | 5 |
| 23d | BigMhlers111 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur79¢ → 100¢ | $3,170 | +$843 +27% | 5 |
| 23d | CVCM | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur79¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$347 +27% | 5 |
| 23d | bagadodg | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur79¢ → 100¢ | $3,910 | +$1,039 +27% | 5 |
| 23d | lastwarr | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Game Spread +/-5.5 | BuyAlex de Minaur39¢ → 0¢ | $1,792 | −$1,792 −100% | 6 |
| 25d | dv-pm | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BuyAlex de Minaur80¢ → 100¢ | $5,577 | +$1,394 +25% | 4 |
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Mariano Navone in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone means the market gives it about 100%.