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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 64% | −11 pts | — | 63¢ · 64¢ (1¢) | $2.42K | in 69d |
| Rodri | 11% | +4 pts | — | 6¢ · 16¢ (10¢) | $124 | in 69d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 8% | +2 pts | — | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | $3.21K | in 69d |
| Michael Olise | 7% | −1 pts | — | 6¢ · 8¢ (2¢) | $650 | in 69d |
| Pau Cubarsi | 5% | 0 pts | — | — · 11¢ | — | in 69d |
| Achraf Hakimi | 5% | +1 pts | — | — · 11¢ | — | in 69d |
| Willian Pacho | 5% | 0 pts | — | — · 10¢ | — | in 69d |
| Jude Bellingham | 5% | +2 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $50 | in 69d |
| Declan Rice | 5% | +2 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $50 | in 69d |
| Vitinha | 5% | +1 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Bruno Fernandes | 5% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · 9¢ (9¢) | $40 | in 69d |
| Luis Diaz | 5% | +3 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $50 | in 69d |
| Marc Cucurella | 5% | +1 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 5% | +3 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $50 | in 69d |
| Sadio Mané | 5% | +2 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $50 | in 69d |
| Marquinhos | 5% | +2 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $60 | in 69d |
| Nuno Mendes | 5% | 0 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $31 | in 69d |
| Ferran Torres | 5% | 0 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Vinícius Júnior | 4% | 0 pts | — | — · 9¢ | — | in 69d |
| Lamine Yamal | 4% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 9¢ (8¢) | $71.6 | in 69d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 9¢ (8¢) | $71.6 | in 69d |
| João Neves | 4% | 0 pts | — | — · 9¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Erling Haaland | 4% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 8¢ (8¢) | $51.6 | in 69d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 4% | −1 pts | — | 2¢ · 6¢ (4¢) | $71.6 | in 69d |
| Dayot Upamecano | 3% | 0 pts | — | — · 7¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Fabian Ruiz | 3% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · 7¢ (6¢) | $104 | in 69d |
| Julián Quiñones | 3% | 0 pts | — | — · 6¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| William Saliba | 3% | 0 pts | — | — · 6¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Harry Kane | 2% | 0 pts | — | — · 4¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2% | −1 pts | — | — · 3¢ | $10 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  Cypya | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo91¢ → 92¢ | $1,093 | +$12 +1.1% | 10 |
| 1d | OuldLm3alem | Lionel Messi | BuyYes73¢ → 64¢ | $1,654 | −$215 −13% | 22 |
Luck7.7.7423 shares
Cypyi410 sharesCypya400 shares
TimeTraveler4,485 shares
tescat300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 5th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 5th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 64¢ for Lionel Messi means the market gives it about 64%.