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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 352d |  UwO2 fills | Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,652 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 352d | omaar123 | Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,492 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
tupac15,685 shares
FridayNight1,200 shares
flowBlow1,000 shares
BidenVoter898 shares
congforward531 shares
Themoneyprinter448 sharesOn January 3, 2024, Bill Ackman tweeted a 4,064-word novella (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1742441534627184760). The potential victory of Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral race has renewed speculation of an Ackman sequel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Ackman’s current X (Twitter) account, @BillAckman, posts any single tweet of 1,000 words or more by November 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Threads do not aggregate. Only the original version of the tweet as first posted will be considered. The word count will be determined by pasting the tweet’s full text into wordcounter.net.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.