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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 916d | EscalateFund | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyHigher96¢ → 100¢ | $5,916 | +$270 +4.6% | 2 |
| 916d | kkkk1111 | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyHigher89¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$248 +12% | 2 |
| 917d | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyLower54¢ → 0¢ | $6,860 | −$6,860 −100% | 2 | |
| 917d | EscalateFund2 fills | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyLower51¢ → 0¢ | $5,480 | −$5,480 −100% | 4 |
| 918d | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | SellLower49¢ → 0¢ | $2,913 | +$2,913 +100% | — | |
| 918d | madkkee | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyHigher50¢ → 100¢ | $8,395 | +$8,395 +100% | 5 |
| 918d | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | SellHigher50¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | −$1,250 −100% | — | |
| 918d | Bitcoin price 24 hours after halving? | BuyLower50¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Higher" if the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) is higher 24 hours after the time of the halving than it was at the time of the halving. This market will resolve to "Lower" if the price of $BTC is lower 24 hours after the time of the halving. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the price of $BTC is exactly the same 24 hours after the time of the halving. The price of $BTC at time of halving is defined herein as the "C" price (when the "Price" tab and "24h" is selected) listed on https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT for the candle covering the 1 minute window during which the halving occurs. Note that the candles are titled and dated with the closing second, and cover the 1 minute preceding their title. This market will resolve according to the “C” (when the "Price" tab is selected and "1m" is selected, on https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT) listed for the candle exactly 24 hours after the candle containing the halving timestamp. For example, if the halving occurred within the 1 minute candle titled "2024/04/19 09:00:00", then the market will resolve based on the "C" price of the "2024/04/20 09:00:00" candle.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.