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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172d |  Facaie | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellUp>99¢ | $1,115 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Dirty-Crystal | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellUp>99¢ | $1,015 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  trulyalya1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellUp>99¢ | $5,792 | −$28 −0.5% | — |
| 172d |  abellll | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp>99¢ | $2,894 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 172d | 0x6E1d5040d0ac73709B0621F620d2a60b80d2D0F3 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp82¢ → 100¢ | $6,424 | +$1,391 +22% | 3 |
| 172d |  Rhabarberbarbarbar | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp99¢ → 100¢ | $8,284 | +$118 +1.4% | 2 |
| 172d | jhz11222 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp92¢ → 100¢ | $6,247 | +$513 +8.2% | 3 |
| 172d | 0xe617…f251 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp>99¢ | $2,000 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 172d | Jfjfjfjffjdjd | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp99¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | +$14 +1.0% | 2 |
| 172d |  Shakeshilly | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellUp99¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 172d | ascetic0x | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown46¢ → 0¢ | $1,104 | −$1,104 −100% | 5 |
| 172d | easypredict4 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown27¢ → 0¢ | $7,512 | −$7,512 −100% | 13 |
| 172d | Horrible-Degree | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellDown30¢ → 0¢ | $1,643 | +$1,643 +100% | — |
| 172d |  aleksandmoney | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp68¢ → 100¢ | $5,641 | +$2,655 +47% | 5 |
| 172d | aleksandmoney | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellDown34¢ → 0¢ | $2,054 | +$2,054 +100% | — |
| 172d | jasonxzp6 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown39¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 5 |
| 172d | suntori | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | SellUp60¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | −$957 −67% | — |
| 172d | Identical-Schooner | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown58¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 5 |
| 172d | aleksandmoney | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown50¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 5 |
| 172d | 2026frederick | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp84¢ → 100¢ | $8,081 | +$1,547 +19% | 3 |
| 172d |  alexkarman | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp90¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$188 +12% | 3 |
| 172d | easypredict4 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp76¢ → 100¢ | $13,248 | +$4,287 +32% | 4 |
| 172d | exceeding2 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp79¢ → 100¢ | $2,763 | +$747 +27% | 3 |
| 172d | gobblewobble2 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp77¢ → 100¢ | $2,901 | +$850 +29% | 4 |
| 172d | Horrible-Degree2 fills | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyDown22¢ → 0¢ | $2,457 | −$2,457 −100% | 9 |
| 173d | trulyalya1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | BuyUp50¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$2,921 +101% | 3 |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.