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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thompson | 0% | −13 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kaczynski | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Deny, Defend, Depose | 0% | −15 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| McDonald's | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| UPenn | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| AI | 0% | −9 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fauci | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Woke | 0% | −9 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Black lives matter | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Preexisting condition | 0% | −11 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Vaccine | 0% | −10 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Biden | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 682d |  lranon | Biden | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | lranon | Deny, Defend, Depose | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,359 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | lranon | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,993 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | lranon | Woke | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,398 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d |  Infringe | AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,195 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | Nahhhhhh | Fauci | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,032 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | Infringe | Black lives matter | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,757 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | Infringe | UPenn | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,555 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | Infringe | McDonald's | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,827 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d | Nahhhhhh | Brian Thompson | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,253 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 682d | Nahhhhhh | AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 682d | Nahhhhhh | UPenn | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 682d | Nahhhhhh | Vaccine | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,556 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 682d |  MarekyMarek | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,437 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 682d | MarekyMarek | AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,058 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 682d | MarekyMarek | Kaczynski | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,546 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 682d | MarekyMarek | Brian Thompson | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | +$20 +0.6% | 20 |
| 682d |  Ezypzy | Kaczynski | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,603 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 682d |  fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | Brian Thompson | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 682d | MrFievel | UPenn | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 682d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Kaczynski | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 682d | fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$24 +2.0% | 20 |
| 682d | fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | McDonald's | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,581 | +$53 +2.0% | 20 |
| 682d |  Axios | McDonald's | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,256 | +$96 +2.3% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | UPenn | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,379 | +$125 +5.3% | 20 |
| 682d |  carp | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,888 | +$112 +2.9% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Black lives matter | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,484 | +$156 +1.8% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Brian Thompson | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,533 | +$113 +4.5% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Kaczynski | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$88 +6.7% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Deny, Defend, Depose | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,812 | +$166 +9.2% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Trump | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,934 | +$146 +7.6% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | AI | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$105 +7.8% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Woke | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,730 | +$282 +7.6% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Preexisting condition | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,111 | +$189 +8.9% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Fauci | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,793 | +$204 +4.3% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Biden | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | +$122 +7.7% | 20 |
| 682d | Axios | Vaccine | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,657 | +$171 +6.4% | 20 |
| 683d |  vocifer | Kaczynski | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,281 | +$1,041 +32% | 20 |
This is a market group over what terms will appear in the Brian Thompson shooter's manifesto if it is released by Friday.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Brian Thompson means the market gives it about 0%.