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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 19 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 16 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 303d |  bamesjond | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,177 | −$32 −1.0% | — |
| 306d | alwaysOn2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 308d | luckboxx | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$33 −3.1% | — |
| 308d | NefariousX2 fills | December 19 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,805 | −$255 −9.1% | — |
| 308d | tmyk | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,327 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | esac | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,880 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d |  UwO | December 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,855 | −$62 −1.1% | — |
| 309d | yougotme2 fills | December 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,589 | −$93 −0.9% | — |
| 309d |  Naichli2 fills | December 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,392 | −$31 −0.6% | — |
| 309d | XXIJ | December 19 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,543 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 309d | wubddh | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,135 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d |  DaOnepiece | December 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,950 | −$12 −0.6% | — |
| 309d | iceforme24 | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | −$39 −3.7% | — |
| 309d | Thin-Print2 fills | December 19 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,844 | −$267 −1.6% | — |
| 309d | UwO | December 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,549 | +$79 +0.9% | 20 |
| 309d |  Okayimokay | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$33 −3.3% | — |
| 309d | BTCFudder | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$35 −3.3% | — |
| 309d | Mammoth-Fratricide2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,901 | +$82 +1.0% | 20 |
| 309d |  MLBksRETARD2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,588 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 309d | MLBksRETARD | December 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 309d | poomypants | December 19 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$31 −2.8% | — |
| 309d | Warlike-Horn | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,746 | +$84 +2.2% | 20 |
| 309d |  Judkins | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | −$67 −5.3% | — |
| 309d |  uncleroger | December 19 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$24 +2.0% | 20 |
| 309d | yougotme4 fills | December 19 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,249 | +$152 +2.4% | 20 |
| 309d | uhhh | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$58 −4.2% | — |
| 309d | shelle | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$44 +3.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  elmcap2 | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,633 | +$156 +4.3% | 20 |
| 309d | XXIJ | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,984 | +$124 +4.2% | 20 |
| 309d | Okayimokay | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$31 +3.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,367 | +$232 +9.8% | 22 |
| 309d |  Phonger1 | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,724 | −$82 −4.7% | — |
| 309d | Judkins | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,953 | +$60 +3.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  Snow-White | December 19 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,509 | +$96 +6.4% | 20 |
| 309d | Snow-White | December 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$182 +12% | 20 |
| 309d | bamesjond2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $3,508 | +$1,387 +40% | 20 |
| 309d | bamesjond | December 19 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$115 +11% | 20 |
| 309d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | December 31 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | +$782 +55% | 20 |
| 309d | Judkins | December 19 | SellNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | −$385 −33% | — |
| 310d | Thin-Print | December 19 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $7,045 | +$1,141 +16% | 25 |
| 310d | Londonbritish45 | December 19 | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,035 | −$1,035 −100% | 28 |
| 310d |  PredictionYogi | December 19 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$168 +16% | 24 |
| 310d | NefariousX | December 19 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,473 | +$555 +22% | 25 |
| 310d |  New.Jeans | December 31 | BuyNo43¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$1,865 +131% | 20 |
| 311d | BenD0G3 | December 19 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | +$254 +20% | 23 |
| 311d | Judkins | December 19 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | +$328 +23% | 23 |
| 311d | Naichli | December 19 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | +$473 +33% | 24 |
| 311d | DaOnepiece | December 19 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$306 +31% | 24 |
| 311d | New.Jeans3 fills | December 19 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $3,909 | +$2,271 +58% | 25 |
| 311d | FUTBALL | December 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,539 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | wubddh2 fills | December 16 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,831 | +$284 +1.9% | 20 |
| 312d |  alexfunfunfun | December 16 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$98 +7.5% | 21 |
| 312d | yougotme | December 16 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,035 | +$226 +11% | 22 |
| 312d | coolboy3 | December 19 | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,013 | −$1,013 −100% | 25 |
Judkins14,420 shares
horatio1,763 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the December 13th Brown University mass shooting by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only arrests of individuals for alleged participation in the planning or execution of the shooting itself will qualify. Arrests made solely for related or subsequent conduct will not qualify. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant is being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 19 means the market gives it about 0%.