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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 718d |  B0nzie | Capital gains tax increase before election day? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 718d |  50Whence | Capital gains tax increase before election day? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,220 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 731d | Flare | Capital gains tax increase before election day? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,103 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 731d | AJMC | Capital gains tax increase before election day? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,678 | +$29 +0.5% | 10 |
| 836d | Flare | Capital gains tax increase before election day? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$147 +7.5% | 10 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by Nov 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the top net long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note: if a bill has the effect of treating net long-term capital gains as ordinary income, and the top rate on the income is above 20%, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Surtaxes or other modifications to what is considered long-term capital gains will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.