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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 353d | Postbox | Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | −$176 −7.5% | — |
| 358d | ZOVENJOYER | Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | +$26 +2.1% | 4 |
| 428d | JHRUE | Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,679 | −$739 −20% | — |
| 438d | JHRUE2 fills | Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$493 +22% | 4 |
| 496d | Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$462 +39% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall within 50 miles of Miami, Florida (25.7617° N, 80.1918° W) as a Category 3 or higher hurricane, between June 9 and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, based on data from official NHC operational advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the storm must be classified as a Category 3 or higher hurricane at the time of landfall. Reports of Category 3 or higher intensity at other locations or times do not qualify. Only the intensity at the landfall point within the specified radius will qualify. If a hurricane makes multiple qualifying landfalls, each will be evaluated independently for resolution. The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Miami (25.7617° N, 80.1918° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. A Category 3 or higher hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with 1-minute sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php). For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on the initial advisory issued by the NHC confirming a qualifying landfall, regardless of any later revision or reanalysis that contradicts the original report. Data may also be corroborated by the HURDAT2 database (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat) if needed.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.