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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% | — | — | 1¢ · 99¢ (98¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: California by 25+ | 41% | +2 pts | −10 pts | 1¢ · 80¢ (79¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: SMU by 7-12 | 41% | +2 pts | +4 pts | 1¢ · 80¢ (79¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: SMU by 19-24 | 41% | +3 pts | +4 pts | 1¢ · 80¢ (79¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: SMU by 13-18 | 40% | +3 pts | +3 pts | 1¢ · 79¢ (78¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: SMU by 25+ | 40% | +2 pts | −10 pts | 1¢ · 79¢ (78¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: California by 19-24 | 40% | +1 pts | +3 pts | 1¢ · 78¢ (77¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: SMU by 1-6 | 40% | +1 pts | +3 pts | 1¢ · 78¢ (77¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: California by 13-18 | 33% | — | — | 1¢ · 64¢ (63¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: California by 1-6 | 24% | — | — | 1¢ · 46¢ (45¢) | — | in 10h |
| Exact Margin: California by 7-12 | 24% | — | — | 1¢ · 46¢ (45¢) | — | in 10h |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
SanchezRickC1373 sharesExact margin markets for California vs. SMU.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Exact Margin: Tie means the market gives it about 50%.