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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 100% | +59 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3 | 0% | −35 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4 | 0% | −13 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 6 | 0% | −4 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 7+ | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 533d | Predictandbreathe | 2 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,353 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  Flipadelphia2 fills | 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,232 | +$15 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | polyfabian | 5 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,267 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | Flipadelphia | 7+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,159 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | -JB- | 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,858 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | polyfabian | 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,266 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | pirulino | 2 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,374 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 533d | dumiz | 2 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$15 +1.0% | 10 |
| 533d |  Slowroasted | 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,643 | +$7 +0.2% | 10 |
| 533d |  Dropper | 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,220 | +$6 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d |  AgricultureSecretary | 3 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | +$259 +17% | 10 |
| 533d | AgricultureSecretary | 2 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$27 +2.3% | 10 |
| 533d |  Al-Khwarizm1 | 2 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$441 +30% | 10 |
| 533d | eerooftime | 2 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,824 | −$1,824 −100% | 10 |
| 534d |  Parz1vaI | 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,603 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | JSoon | 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,249 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | EscalateFund | 7+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$70 +4.4% | 10 |
| 534d | Flipadelphia | 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,381 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 534d | Al-Khwarizm1 | 1 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,408 | +$42 +2.9% | 10 |
| 534d |  just.some.guy | 1 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,924 | +$76 +2.6% | 10 |
| 535d | just.some.guy | 5 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$60 +5.7% | 10 |
| 535d |  UwO | 1 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$27 +0.9% | 10 |
| 536d |  Vanquish | 1 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,733 | +$53 +3.1% | 10 |
| 543d |  MisTKy3 | 1 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$76 +4.8% | 10 |
| 546d | Trivena | 2 | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $11,606 | −$17,409 −150% | — |
| 546d | Qalver | 2 | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $17,429 | −$17,429 −100% | 10 |
A papal conclave to elect the next pope will be held in Rome beginning no earlier than 16 days after Pope Francis' passing, and no later than 21. This gives a date range for the beginning of the papal conclave as starting between May 6 and May 12, 2025. This market will resolve according to the number of days the papal conclave to elect the next bishop of Rome following Pope Francis lasts. Counted days will start on the day the conclave begins and end on the day the final vote is cast. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 2 means the market gives it about 100%.