Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +23 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 461d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe32 fills | Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,193 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 461d |  tsybka | Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,429 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 463d |  gopfan22 fills | Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $3,018 | +$936 +31% | 4 |
DRD783112 shares
Cass959583 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between July 16, 9:00 PM, and August 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. Resolver
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.