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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 188d | 0x9429…c151 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,268 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | N1xHS | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | 1647171 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,925 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,116 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | iamcj2025 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,597 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | mamai | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,130 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 188d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,864 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 188d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,330 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 188d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,389 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 188d | win-win-win99 | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,257 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 188d | Gentle-East | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 188d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,799 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 188d |  upont2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,138 | +$268 +3.3% | 21 |
| 188d | WCWS3 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,319 | +$164 +2.2% | 21 |
| 188d |  Annica | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,454 | +$28 +0.8% | 20 |
| 188d | mkhatunn2312 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,463 | +$67 +0.8% | 20 |
| 189d | Repulsive-Hit | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  Mei-ji | 65-89 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,105 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 189d | Joethebirria125 | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | −$12 −1.1% | — |
| 189d | Mei-ji | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | +$25 +2.0% | 21 |
| 189d | carboyant | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,417 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | carboyant | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,384 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Dswang6 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $15,649 | +$815 +5.2% | 21 |
| 189d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,379 | +$91 +1.0% | 20 |
| 189d | Dswang | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,509 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  yrteyeyterthbtyfc | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,647 | +$34 +2.0% | 21 |
| 189d | Missyou98 | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$22 +2.0% | 21 |
| 189d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$21 +2.0% | 21 |
| 189d | Coinupup | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,992 | +$76 +1.3% | 20 |
| 189d | Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 189d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,988 | +$124 +4.2% | 21 |
| 189d | iamcj20252 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,219 | +$363 +11% | 23 |
| 189d | yolol | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | +$109 +6.4% | 22 |
| 189d | Oval-Convection | 65-89 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$99 +7.5% | 22 |
| 189d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,773 | +$35 +0.3% | 20 |
| 189d | Mei-ji | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,924 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 189d | upont4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,859 | +$115 +1.3% | 20 |
| 189d | boukrtemlakhdar | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,042 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 189d | OstapP | 65-89 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,692 | −$188 −11% | — |
| 189d | Gentle-East | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$78 +7.5% | 22 |
| 189d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,379 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 189d |  Boss72 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,846 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 189d | Dswang | 65-89 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,825 | +$159 +8.7% | 22 |
| 189d | 16471712 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $5,686 | +$1,186 +21% | 25 |
| 189d | upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 189d |  TukiAdo | 65-89 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,518 | −$232 −15% | — |
| 189d | Vincent44230 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 189d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,333 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 189d | hjhgfgf | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,698 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 189d | svmt | 65-89 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,926 | +$641 +16% | 24 |
| 189d | Dswang | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,969 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 189d | AlexPro | 65-89 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,596 | +$477 +30% | 26 |
| 189d | OstapP | 65-89 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$519 +35% | 27 |
| 189d | Repulsive-Hit | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | +$21 +1.7% | 20 |
| 189d | Tagan1 | 65-89 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,590 | +$398 +25% | 25 |
| 189d | johnny-guitar | 90-114 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$222 +22% | 25 |
| 189d | carboyant2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,018 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 189d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,988 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 189d | MelH | 65-89 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,442 | +$506 +35% | 27 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.