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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +33 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 174d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,856 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,365 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 174d |  Mei-ji | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | IVNBRENESS1111 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,669 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | Flaky-Bidding | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,550 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | SLG007 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,991 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | nplyer | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,623 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | 55558885 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 174d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,870 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 174d | ychwuw | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 174d | thcdmz | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,618 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 174d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,691 | +$940 +7.4% | 22 |
| 174d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,098 | +$53 +0.5% | 20 |
| 174d | Flaky-Bidding | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,500 | +$57 +0.8% | 20 |
| 174d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,829 | +$31 +0.8% | 20 |
| 174d | Kairos1992 | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,649 | −$20 −1.2% | — |
| 174d | rusgreat | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,172 | +$25 +1.2% | 20 |
| 174d | WCWS3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,912 | +$88 +1.3% | 20 |
| 174d | Curvy-PlightNew account | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$13 +1.3% | 21 |
| 174d | nplyer | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$24 +1.5% | 21 |
| 175d | lineupdog | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$17 +1.6% | 21 |
| 175d | TomSargent | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,612 | +$56 +2.2% | 21 |
| 175d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$23 +2.2% | 21 |
| 175d | TomSargent2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,082 | +$162 +3.2% | 21 |
| 175d | 0x35a2…8a5e | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,456 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Kairos1992 | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$69 +4.3% | 21 |
| 175d | gonesteme | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,705 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | termita88 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 175d | termita88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | TomCryptoDefi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,002 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 175d | Degenerate-Dude2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,474 | +$221 +8.9% | 22 |
| 175d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,099 | +$269 +8.7% | 22 |
| 175d | wtfdoublecaptome | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$15 +0.4% | 20 |
| 175d | jiminimenez | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$150 +11% | 23 |
| 175d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$38 +0.4% | 20 |
| 175d | IVNBRENESS1111 | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$270 +19% | 24 |
| 175d |  jesterthegoose | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,750 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | anon.1980.123 | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | +$21 +1.5% | 20 |
| 175d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,629 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d |  C78123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | xxtgsy | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$33 +0.7% | 20 |
| 175d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,008 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,403 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,507 | +$76 +1.0% | 20 |
| 175d | CJLabs | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,978 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Mobilc | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Mobilc | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | 0xbea8…36ef | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$92 +8.8% | 22 |
| 175d | Kairos1992 | <40 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | +$193 +14% | 23 |
| 175d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,401 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 176d | Boss72 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,299 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d | loveheng | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,575 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 176d | carboyant2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,968 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 176d | Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,381 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 176d | foreglory21 | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | HuatzTTM | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,674 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
nimikm6,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.