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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-189 | 100% | +81 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-109 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 110-119 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-129 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130-139 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-149 | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-169 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 170-179 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-199 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-209 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210-219 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-229 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 230-239 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-249 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 560d |  rWallStreetBets💎 | 180-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,937 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 560d | As24051 | 190-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,579 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 560d | nbapro | 190-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,329 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 560d | kingbin | 190-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,670 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 560d |  Gustav4 | 180-189 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,849 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 560d | cipherpilot | 190-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,007 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 560d | CookeMonster | 180-189 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 560d | cipherpilot | 180-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 560d | cipherpilot | 220-229 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,304 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 560d | SirDragon | 190-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$35 +3.5% | 20 |
| 560d |  LookBehindYou | 180-189 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,962 | +$182 +6.2% | 20 |
| 561d |  afterer2 fills | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,638 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | 0rocky007 | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,975 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | 0xeccdededcc | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,115 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | rwo | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,295 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | kingbin | 230-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,728 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 561d | glarity | 230-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 561d | longtern2 fills | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,579 | +$39 +0.3% | 20 |
| 561d | cipherpilot | 170-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,974 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | AlexPro2 fills | 170-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,979 | +$519 +6.5% | 22 |
| 561d | cipherpilot2 fills | 220-229 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,290 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 561d | JUSTICEYOON | 190-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,452 | +$248 +10% | 23 |
| 561d | kingbin | 160-169 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,311 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 561d | kingbin | 150-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,046 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 561d | kingbin | 250+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,600 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | rwo | 160-169 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,931 | +$35 +0.2% | 20 |
| 561d | afterer2 fills | 160-169 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,355 | +$118 +1.4% | 20 |
| 561d | kingbin4 fills | 160-169 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $9,434 | +$1,106 +12% | 23 |
| 561d | afterer | 150-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,702 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 561d |  qingping | 250+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,955 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | AlexPro | 150-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,482 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 561d | AreWeNotEntertained | 150-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,673 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 561d | AlexPro | 150-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,551 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 561d | kingbin2 fills | 150-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,954 | +$96 +2.4% | 21 |
| 561d | cccccccccc | 250+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 561d | wesleycoup | 180-189 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,087 | −$1,087 −100% | 21 |
| 561d |  Naichli | 190-199 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | +$231 +14% | 23 |
| 561d | merkur4 fills | 250+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,201 | +$94 +1.1% | 20 |
| 561d | AZwater2 fills | 250+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,008 | +$197 +2.8% | 21 |
| 562d |  Cryptocher | 150-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,001 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 562d | afterer | 150-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,538 | +$112 +2.0% | 20 |
| 562d |  Skovorodnikov | 140-149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,161 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 562d | afterer | 140-149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 562d | AreWeNotEntertained | 140-149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,856 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 562d | nbapro | 250+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$35 +2.9% | 20 |
| 562d | glarity | 140-149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 562d | astromage2 fills | 140-149 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,426 | +$170 +3.8% | 21 |
| 562d | leiger2 fills | 140-149 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,059 | +$67 +2.2% | 20 |
| 562d | AreWeNotEntertained | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,025 | +$48 +0.1% | 20 |
| 562d |  lolboy4D | 150-159 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | +$487 +24% | 23 |
| 562d | Gustav43 fills | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,447 | +$31 +0.7% | 20 |
| 562d | astromage | 250+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,158 | +$90 +4.2% | 21 |
| 562d | glarity | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 562d | glarity | 250+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 21 |
| 562d | Snoorrason | 140-149 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,698 | +$90 +5.3% | 21 |
| 562d | Snoorrason | 130-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$42 +3.0% | 20 |
| 562d | AreWeNotEntertained | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,606 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 562d | cipherpilot2 fills | 120-129 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,513 | +$37 +0.6% | 20 |
| 562d | Mrhack210291 | 130-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | +$78 +5.4% | 21 |
| 562d | Gustav4 | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,032 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-189 means the market gives it about 100%.