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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400+ | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115–129 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130–144 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 145–159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160–174 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190–204 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 205–219 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220–234 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 235–249 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–264 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 265–279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280–294 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 295–309 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 310–324 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–339 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340–354 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 355–369 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 370–384 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 385–399 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 414d | ShivaLemire | 400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $5,494 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  Annica8 fills | 400+ | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $17,552 | −$1,844 −11% | — |
| 414d |  Gustav43 fills | 400+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,282 | +$413 +6.6% | 21 |
| 414d |  RealDonaldMusk | 400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,008 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 415d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | TheLastOfMachine5 fills | 400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,812 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | TheLastOfMachine2 fills | 385–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,433 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d |  Prexpect | 400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,496 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 415d | edison668 | 385–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,614 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | willi98 | 400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,986 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | aviato | 400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | Annica3 fills | 400+ | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,626 | +$418 +9.0% | 21 |
| 415d |  arcisdead2 fills | 400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,884 | +$28 +0.4% | 20 |
| 415d | TheLastOfMachine8 fills | 370–384 | BuyNo>99¢ | $71,028 | +$71 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d |  Armlet | 370–384 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,142 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | edison6682 fills | 370–384 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,032 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 415d | astromage | 370–384 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,798 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 415d |  Dumbeldor2003 | 385–399 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,543 | −$36 −1.0% | — |
| 415d | cipherpilot | 370–384 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,621 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 415d | cipherpilot | 400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,492 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 416d | ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | 400+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | −$23 −1.4% | — |
| 416d | Maroni | 385–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,562 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 416d | leiger | 400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,508 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 416d |  ElonSpam | 400+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | −$32 −1.5% | — |
| 416d | TheLastOfMachine | 355–369 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,633 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 416d | Icannotwin | 400+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | −$28 −2.2% | — |
| 416d |  HolyMoses7 | 340–354 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,091 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 416d | elPolloLoco2 fills | 370–384 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,807 | −$64 −1.1% | — |
| 416d | ShivaLemire | 400+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,824 | +$118 +3.1% | 21 |
| 416d | astromage2 fills | 325–339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,339 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 416d | Snoorrason | 325–339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 416d | cipherpilot | 325–339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,242 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 416d |  doubleone | 400+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,223 | +$157 +13% | 22 |
| 416d |  PredictionYogi | 400+ | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $6,897 | +$1,724 +25% | 23 |
| 416d | cipherpilot3 fills | 310–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,667 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 416d | glarity | 400+ | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$400 +25% | 23 |
| 416d | glarity2 fills | 310–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,488 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 417d | BondiBaddie | 400+ | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 28 |
| 417d | BondiBaddie5 fills | 400+ | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $11,902 | −$3,748 −31% | — |
| 417d | leiger | 310–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 417d | 0xDB5 | 400+ | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$132 −11% | — |
| 417d | Rogu6 fills | 400+ | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $8,863 | +$3,170 +36% | 22 |
| 417d | 0xNesh | 310–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,279 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 417d | sweetlolo | 370–384 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 417d | Dumbeldor2003 | 385–399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$63 +2.1% | 20 |
| 418d | Annica | 385–399 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | −$36 −3.1% | — |
| 418d | ElonSpam | 325–339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 418d | ElonSpam2 fills | 310–324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,558 | +$103 +1.1% | 20 |
| 418d | Dumbeldor20032 fills | 400+ | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,740 | +$413 +8.7% | 21 |
| 418d | ElonSpam | 295–309 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,335 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 418d |  sunflowerboy | 250–264 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,944 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 418d | Maroni | 280–294 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,019 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 418d | ElonSpam2 fills | 235–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,288 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 418d | ElonSpam | 250–264 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 419d | Annica2 fills | 280–294 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,635 | +$126 +2.7% | 20 |
| 419d | Annica2 fills | 265–279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,416 | +$59 +1.7% | 20 |
| 419d | Annica2 fills | 250–264 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,597 | +$285 +5.1% | 20 |
| 419d | Annica | 235–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,342 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 419d | Annica | 310–324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,325 | +$20 +0.9% | 20 |
| 419d | ElonSpam2 fills | 205–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,193 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
FreeCityIndividual994 shares
WienerProcess596 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and September 5, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 400+ means the market gives it about 100%.