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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340-359 | 100% | +24 pts | +45 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-59 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −10 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −13 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | +8 pts | +32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −9 pts | +4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −5 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304d |  Zamasuu | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | sangchul | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Poiuztrewq | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | shortem | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Yanncll | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,488 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Clockworks | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,026 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  BLOODOFJESUS | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | 0xC2B4 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,021 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  ShibRigsEverything | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,033 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Thin-Print | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,374 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | almondlover9 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,828 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,816 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | cucuruzblindat | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,131 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | DorksRM | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,218 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | 0x265f…a4483 fills | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,579 | −$36 −0.6% | — |
| 304d | cipherpilot2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,733 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 304d | Unlined-LoggiaNew account | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | jijihaoda | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,304 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | shadowmini0n | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | quqlulu | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | astromage | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,027 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d |  500AndADream | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,701 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 304d |  Annica17 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $55,378 | +$14,043 +25% | 23 |
| 304d |  noreasapa3 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,226 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 304d | turnedaround | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | 0xC2B4 | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,464 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | geraldhew89 | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,683 | +$74 +0.3% | 20 |
| 304d | justanotherloss3 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$41 +0.6% | 20 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,058 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 304d | nodemonkes | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,100 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 304d |  Gustav45 fills | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $35,834 | −$36 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Annica8 fills | 340-359 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $45,948 | −$8,666 −19% | — |
| 304d | wajok | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,349 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 304d | cipherpilot | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 304d |  PredictionYogi | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 304d |  Prexpect4 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $32,736 | +$1,170 +3.6% | 21 |
| 304d |  0xBumblebee | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 304d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,972 | +$28 +0.7% | 20 |
| 304d | Emperorvikky | 340-359 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,025 | −$118 −1.7% | — |
| 304d | Prexpect5 fills | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,791 | −$209 −1.1% | — |
| 304d | anciente | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,989 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 304d | PredictionYogi | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,916 | −$45 −0.9% | — |
| 304d | shadowmini0n | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,000 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
| 304d | cipherpilot | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,073 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 304d | chaoyueziji | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 304d | AlexPro | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,647 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 304d | Houdray | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,921 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 304d | LazyWanker | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,788 | −$20 −1.1% | — |
| 304d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,913 | +$35 +0.7% | 20 |
| 304d | influenz.eth | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,762 | +$38 +0.8% | 20 |
| 304d | eldashpol | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,102 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  mathaphaquer | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,710 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Trusting-Running | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,352 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | zxzxzxzx | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  jesterthegoose | 340-359 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,969 | −$86 −2.2% | — |
| 304d | justanotherloss | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,426 | +$73 +0.8% | 20 |
| 304d | fakerrrrrrr | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,833 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  Alphax2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,169 | +$222 +3.1% | 21 |
| 304d | human-bean | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,622 | +$87 +1.3% | 20 |
| 304d |  lafougere2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,638 | +$234 +8.9% | 23 |
OuchMyBalls12,084 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 16 12:00 PM ET to December 23, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 340-359 means the market gives it about 100%.