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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400+ | 100% | −4 pts | +37 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | +4 pts | +4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | +4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | +2 pts | +4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 298d | HIDDEN.ASH8 | 1400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | Epse | 1360-1399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 299d |  Annica3 fills | 1400+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,636 | +$139 +3.0% | 20 |
| 299d | Epse | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,052 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d | Epse3 fills | 1320-1359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,167 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 299d | venezuelain2 fills | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,700 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d |  perps-01sqko852 fills | 1400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,031 | +$39 +1.0% | 20 |
| 299d | Yanncll | 1360-1399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,685 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 300d | Epse3 fills | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,169 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 300d | Annica | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,014 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 300d | Glossy-Permit | 1400+ | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,131 | −$109 −2.6% | — |
| 300d |  awaylot | 1400+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | +$35 +1.9% | 20 |
| 301d | Epse | 1240-1279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | Annica | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,914 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d | Yanncll | 1360-1399 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | +$77 +4.7% | 20 |
| 301d |  Nobo2 fills | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,760 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d |  Rikkert | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d |  Damon0 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,400 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d | Epse | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,055 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d | Epse | 1200-1239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | Rikkert | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,770 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | jijihaoda | 1160-1199 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,035 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 303d | Damon0 | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,401 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | Epse | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | Epse | 1160-1199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,060 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 303d | jijihaoda2 fills | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,213 | +$45 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | venezuelain | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,100 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | Epse | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | Epse | 1080-1119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 303d | jijihaoda | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,035 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 303d | jijihaoda2 fills | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $43,620 | +$44 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | KingOfLol | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,914 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | Nobo2 fills | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,955 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d | Damon0 | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,400 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d |  opolon | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,907 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d |  Yomicool | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,000 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 304d |  Wenkie3 | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,640 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | Nobo2 fills | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,682 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | Epse | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 306d |  Kuukskes | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,660 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 306d |  Jiber | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 306d | Kuukskes | 760-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,240 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 307d | jijihaoda2 fills | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,224 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d |  ZhangMuZhi- | 760-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,862 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d | jijihaoda2 fills | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,794 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d | Epse | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d | Damon0 | 760-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 307d |  igor889 | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,406 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | Konu | 920-959 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,704 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | Ordon | 760-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,295 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | Rikkert | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | jijihaoda | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,885 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  UnstoppableLoxodont | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,925 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  Alphax | 760-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,047 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 309d | jijihaoda | 760-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,844 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 309d | jijihaoda | 920-959 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,532 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 309d | UnstoppableLoxodont | 960-999 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,216 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | jijihaoda | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,929 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 310d | jijihaoda | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,540 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 310d | jijihaoda | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,576 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
champagnezao7 shares
AliF1da22,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of December 2025. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1400+ means the market gives it about 100%.