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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +43 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 251d |  NEMESi | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,344 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | 0x9d7a…525f | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | k7sh2 fills | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,991 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  Archeroon | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  stauffen | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | Quantum.Physics | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,001 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | ejz101 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | Yanncll | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,557 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  brinnxx | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,417 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | Wild-Manner | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,578 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | annerexx | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,324 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | ejz101 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,711 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  Zenef2 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,492 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  crvAlex | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,652 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,307 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 251d | xixi9322 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | 0xf328…2b78 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,054 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 251d |  Prexpect | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | Prexpect4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,857 | +$71 +0.4% | 20 |
| 251d |  Ceirox | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | MovingForward | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,115 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 251d |  LinaBell🦊 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | winwinwingo | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,289 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d |  Warren-Buffett | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,517 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 251d |  poison007 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 251d |  0xzfl | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,043 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 251d | Shallow-Actor | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,807 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 251d | LinaBell🦊 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,629 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | Ashurnasirpal | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,837 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | Prexpect | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,592 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 251d |  lasiweijiasi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 251d | WCWS | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | 0x59BA | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | iipera | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | WCWS | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,217 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | samponcudinti | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,431 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 251d |  Michajlowski | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,349 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | Improbable-Citron | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,078 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | annerexx | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,175 | +$153 +3.7% | 21 |
| 251d |  niitoxyz | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | RickRockRick | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$55 +5.3% | 22 |
| 251d | annerexx | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,176 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | k7sh | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,235 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 251d |  lolboy4D | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,138 | +$172 +5.5% | 22 |
| 251d |  eI0zwvzk | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,430 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 251d | Miiga | 40-64 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | −$72 −6.3% | — |
| 251d |  BoringPunter | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,861 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 251d | 28s | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$20 +0.7% | 20 |
| 251d | Drab-Backyard2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,487 | +$151 +6.1% | 22 |
| 251d | bigmoneylfg | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,018 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,196 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | niuniuhgir | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | k7sh3 fills | <40 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $10,263 | −$2,964 −29% | — |
| 251d | miyugyiftu66 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,134 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,759 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 251d | dudukos | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$353 +12% | 24 |
| 251d | Jaiguruji | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 252d | 0x265f…a448 | 40-64 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | +$441 +29% | 28 |
| 252d | k7sh | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,243 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 252d | Quantum.Physics | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,001 | +$49 +1.2% | 20 |
monkmood5,608 shares
nimikm1,750 shares
Sr.Pink1,336 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 12 12:00 PM ET to February 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.