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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +57 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −43 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −53 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 244d | Drab-Backyard | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,339 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,793 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  freshs | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 244d | k7sh2 fills | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,925 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  brinnxx | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 244d | Next-Carol | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,320 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  Diabetesboi | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,579 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  RossGueller | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,301 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  enginer69 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,966 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 244d | LucasG2 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,182 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 244d | thanhtam86 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | dudukos | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,781 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  crvAlex | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,872 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,928 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,352 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | enginer69 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,964 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | zuzula | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,718 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | youvsuna | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | mybilndspot | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,047 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 245d | carboyant | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,693 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Pungent-Ski | 140-164 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,879 | −$11 −0.6% | — |
| 245d | whaleee | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,946 | +$38 +0.3% | 20 |
| 245d | crawlxx1 | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 245d | Similar-Goodness | 115-139 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,951 | −$46 −2.4% | — |
| 245d | DegenEriccro | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,049 | +$46 +1.5% | 21 |
| 245d | influenz.eth2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,649 | +$120 +4.5% | 21 |
| 245d | k7sh3 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,750 | +$54 +1.1% | 20 |
| 245d |  0xzfl | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | −$27 −1.2% | — |
| 245d | k7sh2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,330 | +$55 +1.0% | 20 |
| 245d | k7sh3 fills | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,791 | −$25 −0.2% | — |
| 245d | WCWS | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | forestk | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,397 | +$61 +1.1% | 20 |
| 245d | iipera | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,419 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d |  Benwen | 115-139 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,665 | +$91 +3.4% | 21 |
| 245d | influenz.eth2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,838 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d |  bigguy4u | 140-164 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,943 | −$75 −3.8% | — |
| 245d | zuzula | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,701 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 245d | 137N2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,599 | −$289 −4.4% | — |
| 245d | These-Yoyo | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$35 +3.3% | 21 |
| 245d | These-Yoyo | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | annerexx | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 245d | vladim1 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | annerexx | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,706 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | freshs | 115-139 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,649 | +$51 +3.1% | 21 |
| 245d |  zouranzoki3 fills | 90-114 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,141 | −$383 −12% | — |
| 245d | 0xzfl | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$62 +4.2% | 21 |
| 245d | LucasG2 | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,136 | +$47 +4.2% | 21 |
| 245d | Amusing-Guinea | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,735 | −$28 −1.0% | — |
| 245d | mintchocolate | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,771 | −$38 −1.0% | — |
| 245d |  pandafam | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,109 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 245d |  Kamenshyk22 | 115-139 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,066 | +$134 +6.5% | 22 |
| 245d | zouranzoki2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,042 | +$195 +9.6% | 23 |
| 245d | 78cheng | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$70 +6.4% | 22 |
| 245d | dudukos2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,120 +37% | 27 |
| 245d |  C78123 | 115-139 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,808 | −$639 −35% | — |
| 245d |  Mir314 | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$20 +2.0% | 21 |
| 245d | 0x59BA | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d |  Harvey67 | 115-139 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,303 | −$369 −28% | — |
| 245d |  kulirner | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | gftt | 90-114 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$145 +12% | 24 |
ddalkkak908 shares
0x28508Bf939cAa75e07a0c280758dea3c3518A9d560 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 19 12:00 PM ET to February 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.