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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 100% | +87 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −38 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −25 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −12 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −5 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 252d |  NEMESi | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | RichhhhhBot | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,030 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | Batmanwing | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,158 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  dushen88 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,112 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | Donation22 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,607 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  stauffen | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  MrLucker | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | cucuruzblindat | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,327 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | annerexx | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,809 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | MelH | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,529 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | 0xf328…2b78 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,193 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | NxGe | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,709 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  Archeroon | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,605 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | ejz101 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,767 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  0000000000000000000000K | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,510 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | Icannotwin | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,956 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | MovingForward | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,904 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | 28s | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,404 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | Poiuztrewq | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,698 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | whaleee | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,751 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | whaleee | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,732 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | O.G.Degen2 fills | 360-379 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,032 | −$447 −5.6% | — |
| 252d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,698 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | Drab-Backyard | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,282 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  AlexTiger | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,081 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  Prexpect8 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $39,454 | +$1,178 +3.0% | 21 |
| 252d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 252d |  eI0zwvzk | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,575 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  crvAlex2 fills | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,710 | −$17 −0.3% | — |
| 252d | winwinwingo | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,189 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 252d | Houdray | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,137 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 252d |  0xzfl | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,767 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 252d |  aljefe | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,912 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 252d |  LtRishnu | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,289 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 252d |  Annica4 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $8,329 | +$3,455 +41% | 28 |
| 252d |  Suhaslb94 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,775 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 252d | SteveFill | 380-399 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 252d | csubhi1 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,889 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 252d | SergeyFora | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,337 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 252d | SergeyFora | 380-399 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,980 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 252d | aljefe2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,439 | +$36 +0.7% | 20 |
| 252d | Ashurnasirpal2 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,522 | +$40 +1.6% | 21 |
| 252d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,497 | +$72 +2.1% | 21 |
| 252d | raymond53 | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,329 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | destinyzz | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 252d |  HowToBasic | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 252d | Suhaslb94 | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,775 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 252d | Wahhdahhhellielon | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$15 +1.4% | 20 |
| 252d |  Brotherinchrist | 360-379 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | −$33 −1.7% | — |
| 252d | 0xzfl | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | +$21 +1.2% | 20 |
| 252d | Quantum.Physics | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,121 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | 0xzfl | 360-379 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | −$41 −2.3% | — |
| 252d |  bobby467 | 360-379 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,304 | −$199 −2.4% | — |
| 252d |  WolfTrades | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,285 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 252d | MelH | 360-379 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,496 | +$34 +2.3% | 21 |
| 252d | EOPTIOF | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 252d | OlegRog | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,915 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 252d | Saturni | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,412 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 252d | influenz.eth2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,279 | +$75 +3.3% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 6 12:00 PM ET to February 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 360-379 means the market gives it about 100%.