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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 900–949 | 100% | +6 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <400 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400–449 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450–499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500–549 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550–599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600–649 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650–699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700–749 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 750–799 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800–849 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 850–899 | 0% | −16 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 950–999 | 0% | −5 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000–1049 | 0% | 0 pts | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1050–1099 | 0% | — | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1100–1149 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1150–1199 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200–1249 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1250–1299 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1300–1349 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1350–1399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400–1449 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1450–1499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 388d | DonaldMusk1 | 900–949 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,175 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 388d | ForgetAboutBenjamin | 950–999 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,628 | +$74 +2.0% | 20 |
| 389d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 1000–1049 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,285 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 390d | TheEconometrician | 850–899 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,292 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 1150–1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,345 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | ElonSpam | 800–849 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,771 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 396d | ginee | 750–799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,764 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 397d |  Annica | 850–899 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 397d | Annica2 fills | 800–849 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,705 | +$23 +0.9% | 20 |
| 397d | Annica | 1400–1449 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,112 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 399d | ElonSpam | 1500+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 409d |  imp | 700–749 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,273 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 413d | BGN | 1500+ | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$290 +28% | 20 |
| 414d | 0xeccdededcc | 1400–1449 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$92 +8.7% | 20 |
| 414d | 0xeccdededcc | 1450–1499 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$119 +8.7% | 20 |
gagax123101 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X in September (ET). For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 900–949 means the market gives it about 100%.