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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140+ | 100% | +60 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-49 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-59 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-69 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| 70-79 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-99 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-109 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 110-119 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-129 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130-139 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 294d |  jesterthegoose | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $8,599 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | jesterthegoose | 130-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,507 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 120-129 | SellNo>99¢ | $22,020 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  KARMASUR | 130-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,152 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  sezo.eth | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,630 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  6673d312d99782D | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | IO. | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,370 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | SuperBet69 | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $4,330 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | KARMASUR3 fills | 140+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,505 | +$215 +1.6% | 20 |
| 294d | Unselfish-Dress | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,904 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | Ordon | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,670 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | KARMASUR | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,152 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | jesterthegoose | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,218 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 294d | influenz.eth | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,792 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 294d | jesterthegoose3 fills | 130-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,813 | +$199 +3.4% | 21 |
| 294d | SuperBet69 | 140+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,888 | +$62 +3.3% | 21 |
| 294d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,052 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | Simon4s2 fills | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,194 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 294d | 0x59BA | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,998 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | Simon4s | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 294d | ayallah | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 294d | Eblaciu | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 2CC9 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,697 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 294d | DB51 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 7225aa | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 4ef | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | E8989 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 0CDC | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,047 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 294d | 703a | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,216 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 42E2 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,178 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 7E9 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,146 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | 54EF5 | 100-109 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,158 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | MovingForward | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,300 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 295d | btacc | 90-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,394 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | btacc | 80-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,172 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | Paltry-Sentiment | 80-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,090 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | payose3 fills | 40-49 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,516 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d |  mossagent | 50-59 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,438 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | payose | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,265 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 1 12:00 PM ET to January 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140+ means the market gives it about 100%.