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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-164 | 100% | +70 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 272d | sachin5868 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,450 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  poison007 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Flancho | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,932 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  stauffen | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,734 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Immaterial-Confectionery | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,106 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | roadmanna | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,232 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | ninemmmm | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Zenef2 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,103 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | yixiao88 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Lumi5 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,195 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Yanncll | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,659 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Thin-Print | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,424 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | 0x265f…a448 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,381 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | gomm7595 | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | whitewash | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,835 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Shallow-Actor | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,638 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | bnone | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,601 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,451 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Gustav4 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Flancho | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,932 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 140-164 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $12,128 | +$327 +2.7% | 21 |
| 272d | KiTiFeng | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,206 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | voloshin | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,061 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | JamesWe0434 | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,359 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | JamesWe0434 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,359 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Poory | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,457 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 272d | TomFeng | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,020 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 272d |  Gabbers | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,109 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 272d | gagagougou | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,396 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 272d |  eI0zwvzk2 fills | 140-164 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,402 | +$152 +4.5% | 21 |
| 272d | Gustav4 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,798 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 272d | jyttttt | 140-164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 272d | Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,173 | +$51 +1.2% | 20 |
| 272d | cucuruzblindat | 140-164 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,711 | −$65 −1.4% | — |
| 272d | 20625657 | 140-164 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 272d | gomm7595 | 140-164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 |
| 272d | Immaterial-ConfectioneryNew account | 140-164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$14 +1.3% | 21 |
| 272d | Elonthegreat | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,269 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 272d | poison007 | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,566 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | FakeX | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.0% | 21 |
| 272d | FakeX | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,004 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  ggmggn | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,312 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | ggmggn | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | PredictionYogi | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | roadmanna | 140-164 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$97 +8.5% | 23 |
| 273d | FakeX | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 273d | DegenEriccro | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,133 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 273d | zxzxzxzx | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,388 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | FakeX | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | 20625657 | 190-214 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,845 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 273d | stauffen | 165-189 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | +$188 +12% | 24 |
| 273d | stauffen | 190-214 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 273d | 0x265f…a448 | 140-164 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,117 | +$383 +18% | 25 |
| 273d |  Mei-ji | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 273d | eI0zwvzk2 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,179 | +$105 +1.0% | 20 |
| 273d | HusbandWife | 165-189 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $8,692 | +$1,908 +22% | 26 |
| 273d | praveendhaneria | 165-189 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | +$228 +22% | 26 |
| 273d |  awaylot | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,593 | +$26 +1.0% | 20 |
| 273d | gal5959 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,264 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | PredictionYogi | 165-189 | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,109 | −$1,109 −100% | 31 |
Quantrix623 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 22 12:00 PM ET to January 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-164 means the market gives it about 100%.