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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250+ | 100% | +39 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-124 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125-149 | 0% | −14 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150-174 | 0% | −18 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175-199 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-224 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225-249 | 0% | −25 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 631d | ThereIsNoSpoon | 250+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,178 | +$22 +1.0% | 20 |
| 631d |  Euan | 225-249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,079 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 632d | rpo | 125-149 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,225 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 633d | 1mperator17 | 125-149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,295 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 633d | ThereIsNoSpoon | 125-149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 633d |  pirateshere | 100-124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,684 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | rpo | 100-124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,484 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | Ordon | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,482 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | longtern | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,923 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | pirateshere | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,696 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | rpo | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,478 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | ThereIsNoSpoon | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,250 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | <100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,194 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 633d | 1mperator17 | 100-124 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$28 +2.2% | 20 |
| 633d | Snoorrason | <100 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 250+ means the market gives it about 100%.