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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +57 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −48 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270d | Collion | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,258 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | Female-Flesh | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d |  Zenef2 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,454 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | 28s | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,131 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | Frontiersman | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,331 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | betaww | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,142 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | dddgen | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,385 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | Kurai | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | gomm7595 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,179 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,666 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | samponcudinti | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,190 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 270d |  stauffen | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,166 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 270d |  Annica | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,147 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 270d | wordofaffirmation | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,360 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 270d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $24,015 | +$135 +0.6% | 20 |
| 270d |  Gustav43 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,910 | +$48 +0.3% | 20 |
| 270d | Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,122 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 270d |  HowToBasic | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 270d | Enraged-MonkNew account | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,054 | +$112 +1.2% | 20 |
| 270d | influenz.eth2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,330 | +$45 +1.3% | 20 |
| 270d | DegenEriccro | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,073 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | betaww | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$19 +1.7% | 21 |
| 270d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 115-139 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,610 | −$313 −2.5% | — |
| 270d | mintchocolate | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,098 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | Stinkers777 | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | −$33 −1.5% | — |
| 270d | Stinkers777 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,879 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | Annica | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,935 | −$22 −1.1% | — |
| 270d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,784 | +$48 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d |  Archeroon | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,077 | −$28 −1.3% | — |
| 270d | cc9999 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,765 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | gomm7595 | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 270d | FortisFortunaAdiuvat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,187 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 270d | FakeX | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 270d | RickRockRick | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 270d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,570 | −$152 −1.4% | — |
| 270d |  BoringPunter | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,104 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 270d | PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,261 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 270d |  jesterthegoose | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,925 | −$181 −1.0% | — |
| 270d |  MyomEverwind | 115-139 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,992 | −$41 −2.0% | — |
| 270d | pepitohd2466 | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 270d | FortisFortunaAdiuvat | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 270d | venezuelain | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,969 | +$31 +1.1% | 20 |
| 270d | jesterthegoose | 90-114 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $15,826 | +$1,699 +11% | 23 |
| 270d | jesterthegoose | 115-139 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $6,084 | +$818 +13% | 24 |
| 270d |  CriptoDadz | 90-114 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | +$528 +37% | 29 |
| 270d | MyomEverwind | 115-139 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$702 +53% | 30 |
| 270d |  flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$64 +2.1% | 21 |
| 270d | Bankrupt-Loser | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,640 | +$40 +0.3% | 20 |
| 270d | AlexPro | 90-114 | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,925 | −$1,925 −100% | 28 |
| 270d | 0x3dA304b247F16E | 90-114 | BuyNo48¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,097 +110% | 30 |
| 271d | beatyesterday | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 271d | roadmanna | 90-114 | SellYes52¢ → 0¢ | $1,160 | +$1,160 +100% | — |
| 271d | Zenef2 | 90-114 | SellYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,138 | +$1,138 +100% | — |
| 271d | Song00 | 90-114 | SellYes64¢ → 0¢ | $4,707 | +$4,707 +100% | — |
| 271d | DegenEriccro | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,874 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 |
| 271d | MyomEverwind | 90-114 | SellYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,330 | +$1,330 +100% | — |
| 271d | RickRockRick | 90-114 | SellYes80¢ → 0¢ | $1,364 | +$1,364 +100% | — |
| 271d | 0x265f…a448 | 90-114 | SellYes89¢ → 0¢ | $1,341 | +$1,341 +100% | — |
| 271d | roadmanna | 90-114 | BuyYes91¢ → 0¢ | $2,021 | −$2,021 −100% | 23 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 24 12:00 PM ET to January 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.