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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340-359 | 100% | +56 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −37 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −9 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −3 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 262d | Tasty-BalconyNew account | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,667 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Lumi5 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,307 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Jopl909 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,129 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  MyomEverwind | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,072 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | FakeX | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,010 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Sukasushi | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,192 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Archeroon | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,125 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Ready-Duckling | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,813 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | pob001 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,592 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  TequilaSunrise12 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,659 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | 28s | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,980 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Poiuztrewq | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,698 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | jc222 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,537 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | annerexx | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,134 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Coordinated-Leather | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,710 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  stauffen | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,990 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | T0T0 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Scary-InstrumentNew account | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,630 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Elonurmom | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,133 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Gustav42 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,517 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | geraldhew892 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,566 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d |  Prexpect4 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $47,178 | +$88 +0.2% | 20 |
| 262d | DegenEriccro | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,303 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Ceirox | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,595 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 262d | Ashurnasirpal3 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,275 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 262d | Bankrupt-Loser | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,439 | +$42 +0.6% | 20 |
| 262d | Gustav4 | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 262d | annerexx | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 262d |  578867986796 | 340-359 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,343 | +$27 +2.0% | 21 |
| 262d | Coordinated-Leather | 360-379 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$49 +4.2% | 21 |
| 262d |  ThereIsntABubble | 340-359 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$85 +6.9% | 22 |
| 262d |  Brotherinchrist | 340-359 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$97 +7.1% | 22 |
| 262d | geraldhew89 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | Mrhack210291 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | MovingForward | 340-359 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$52 +4.9% | 22 |
| 262d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | Ready-Duckling | 340-359 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$149 +7.4% | 22 |
| 262d | ThereIsntABubble2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | −$229 −7.4% | — |
| 262d | Prexpect | 340-359 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | −$36 −2.9% | — |
| 262d | Laurenman | 340-359 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$35 +3.5% | 21 |
| 262d | carboyant | 340-359 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$22 +1.6% | 21 |
| 262d |  KARMASUR | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,757 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Annica2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,428 | −$96 −0.7% | — |
| 262d | volume1 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,731 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 262d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund3 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,805 | +$100 +0.9% | 20 |
| 262d |  aljefe | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,237 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 262d |  poison007 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 262d | aljefe2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,750 | −$23 −0.6% | — |
| 262d | Min777 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 262d |  Benwen | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,772 | −$23 −0.6% | — |
| 262d | 07nbw4 | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 262d | Jaiguruji | 360-379 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 262d | Thin-Print | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,224 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | forestk | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,040 | −$39 −1.0% | — |
| 262d |  Donateplease | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 262d | cucuruzblindat | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 262d | Archeroon2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $3,475 | +$2,084 +60% | 28 |
| 262d | volume1 | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,533 | +$55 +1.2% | 20 |
| 262d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,917 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,811 | +$100 +3.6% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 27 12:00 PM ET to February 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 340-359 means the market gives it about 100%.