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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +56 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −18 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −21 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −7 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 259d | yip88 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,301 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 28s | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | GJLCS | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,036 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0xfc8d…55c5 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,923 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | ebisumike | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,353 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Lukewarm67 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,385 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | annerexx | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,671 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | FakeX | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,105 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0xa9cb…84a1 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,039 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  gotwiped | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,666 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | thebreadchaser20 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  eI0zwvzk | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,662 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | moxigan | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,622 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  TweetPulse.Live | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,137 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,627 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Miracle-2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $5,810 | −$2,969 −51% | — |
| 259d |  Annica2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $44,877 | +$74 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d | Annica9 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $58,916 | +$6,414 +11% | 23 |
| 259d |  PredictionYogi6 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $26,915 | +$530 +2.0% | 21 |
| 259d | winwinwingo | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,210 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | podilko | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,139 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d |  Prexpect3 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,879 | +$84 +0.8% | 20 |
| 259d | dudukos | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Fuhhhhh | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,105 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | 7G-MAN3 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,707 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d |  Benwen | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,310 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 259d |  Archeroon2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $9,427 | −$625 −6.6% | — |
| 259d |  crvAlex | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,149 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 259d |  Gustav4 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,339 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d |  Suhaslb94 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,190 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d | PredictionYogi | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $28,179 | −$67 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | Ashurnasirpal3 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,741 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d |  LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,986 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Maimai33 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,084 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 259d | uglyKunkun | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,120 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d |  Gabbers | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 259d | carboyant | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,619 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d |  Lumi5 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,962 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  ThereIsntABubble | 280-299 | SellYes100¢ | $1,435 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 259d | gotwiped | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,664 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d | TweetPulse.Live | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,133 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d | Gamble8 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,884 | +$116 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | bipbipbop | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | mintcho | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | mintchocolate | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,672 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | A324252 | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,295 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 259d | dudukos | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,376 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 259d |  Loser229 | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 259d | Gamble8 | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,243 | +$38 +0.6% | 20 |
| 259d | carboyant | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,619 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  MyomEverwind | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 259d | taiyange | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,666 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Mortimerr2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,167 | −$308 −9.7% | — |
| 259d | Batmanwing2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $3,599 | −$1,561 −43% | — |
| 259d | Loser229 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 259d | Bulky-Axis | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,472 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | forestk | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,254 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d | alwaysloser | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,665 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,549 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | Ashurnasirpal | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
ripo4,243 shares
Toothemoon-wink2,193 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 30 12:00 PM ET to February 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.