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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +24 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,961 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 128d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,395 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 128d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 128d | Jason2025 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,577 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | Muzamilhussain | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,602 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,285 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,426 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,396 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 129d | win-win-win99 | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,692 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 129d | WCWS4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,140 | +$71 +0.9% | 20 |
| 129d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,950 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 129d |  y111m11 | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,468 | +$31 +2.1% | 21 |
| 129d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$144 +3.8% | 21 |
| 129d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,320 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | beatyesterday | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,187 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 129d | Intelligent-Tax7 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $14,018 | +$1,120 +8.0% | 21 |
| 129d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$54 +4.2% | 21 |
| 129d | Jason2025 | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$79 +5.3% | 21 |
| 129d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,844 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 129d | WCWS | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,979 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 129d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,581 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 129d |  LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,024 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | Separate-Beast2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,466 | +$43 +1.8% | 20 |
| 129d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 129d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | +$57 +3.0% | 21 |
| 129d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,904 | −$27 −1.4% | — |
| 129d | DataDrivenDon | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 129d | SignalNotNoise001 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,394 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 129d | OddsOptimizer099 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 129d | AlphaOracle001 | 40-64 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | +$140 +10.0% | 22 |
| 129d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$215 +4.3% | 22 |
| 129d | suyizi | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,166 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,752 | +$99 +1.0% | 20 |
| 129d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,911 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 130d | Traingman | 90-114 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | −$205 −16% | — |
| 130d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 65-89 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$717 +42% | 25 |
| 130d | bipbipbop | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,194 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | win-win-win993 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,700 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | Henshel | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,969 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | PolicyPlayer | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,155 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 130d | ExpectedValue098 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,892 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 130d | SignalNotNoise001 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,594 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 130d | CapitolCashing | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,785 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 130d | TheSwingState | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 130d | Geopolitician008 | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,493 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 130d | PollWatcher | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 130d | QuantQuark887 | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 130d | YieldYoda | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 130d | BagSecurer | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 130d | DataDrivenDon | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$21 +2.0% | 20 |
| 130d | simengoon | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,988 | +$62 +2.1% | 20 |
| 131d | Traingman | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$42 +4.2% | 21 |
0xPoni-Elon830 shares
Lux600 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 15 12:00 PM ET to June 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.