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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 425-449 | 100% | +58 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <400 | 0% | −23 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | −29 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | −34 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-624 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625-649 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650-674 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 675-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 581d |  IndraGoldenHands | 425-449 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 581d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 425-449 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,855 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 581d | zpdial | 425-449 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,037 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 582d | naeem95m | 425-449 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,514 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 582d | leiger | 425-449 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,732 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d | cipherpilot | 425-449 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,092 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d | cipherpilot | 450-474 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,286 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d | 8282 fills | 425-449 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,910 | +$301 +3.8% | 20 |
| 582d |  Gustav42 fills | 425-449 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,446 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 582d |  PredictionYogi | 425-449 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,229 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 582d |  Prexpect | 425-449 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,126 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 582d | prezbo | 425-449 | SellYes100¢ | $2,095 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 582d | Gustav4 | 450-474 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,448 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 582d | AZwater4 fills | 425-449 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,760 | +$205 +1.4% | 20 |
| 582d | As24051 | 425-449 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,955 | +$45 +1.5% | 20 |
| 582d | shlakbaum | 425-449 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,008 | −$232 −7.7% | — |
| 582d |  Gooddfella | 425-449 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 582d | 0xeccdededcc | 425-449 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,565 | +$73 +2.0% | 20 |
| 582d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 450-474 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,539 | +$378 +8.3% | 20 |
| 582d |  HolyMoses7 | 450-474 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$45 +3.1% | 20 |
| 582d | cigarettes | 450-474 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,611 | +$109 +4.2% | 20 |
| 582d | Jmoud | 425-449 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,569 | +$172 +3.1% | 20 |
| 582d | prezbo | 425-449 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$105 +5.3% | 20 |
| 582d | Platon19 | 475-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d |  Therealsmurf | 425-449 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | +$107 +7.5% | 20 |
| 582d | Linnnnn | 425-449 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$76 +7.5% | 20 |
| 582d |  Gumba2 fills | 425-449 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,608 | +$258 +9.9% | 20 |
| 582d |  Wiz92 | 450-474 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$135 −11% | — |
| 582d | cigarettes | 475-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d | common-rank | 450-474 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,806 | −$201 −11% | — |
| 582d |  item04 | 450-474 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,621 | +$328 +12% | 24 |
| 582d | triban18 | 425-449 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,493 | +$404 +16% | 25 |
| 582d |  CallmeEuphoria | 425-449 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,986 | +$824 +17% | 25 |
| 582d |  Trader556 | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,085 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d |  AccountClose | 425-449 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | −$353 −30% | — |
| 582d |  catasus | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,175 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 582d | Poliwrath | 425-449 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | −$590 −52% | — |
| 582d | catasus | 450-474 | SellYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,090 | +$1,090 +100% | — |
| 582d | ElonSpam | 475-499 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,146 | −$54 −2.5% | — |
| 582d | 0xeccdededcc | 450-474 | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,086 | −$1,086 −100% | 30 |
| 582d | ElonSpam | 450-474 | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | −$1,043 −100% | 30 |
| 582d |  sigh | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 582d | ElonSpam3 fills | 425-449 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $4,439 | −$3,433 −77% | — |
| 582d | kingbin2 fills | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $29,732 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 582d |  LOL525 | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 582d | kingbin | 550-574 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 582d | kingbin7 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $40,044 | +$382 +1.0% | 20 |
| 582d | AZwater2 fills | 475-499 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,575 | +$68 +2.6% | 21 |
| 582d | Therealsmurf | 400-424 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,053 | +$43 +2.1% | 21 |
| 582d | kingbin | 500-524 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,973 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 582d | common-rank | 450-474 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$450 +33% | 28 |
| 582d | ElonSpam3 fills | 475-499 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,594 | +$353 +9.8% | 21 |
| 582d |  roy74103 fills | 425-449 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $5,762 | −$5,762 −100% | 25 |
| 582d |  lolboy4D | 450-474 | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,931 | +$1,931 +100% | — |
| 582d | cipherpilot3 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,509 | +$42 +0.9% | 20 |
| 582d | ElonSpam | 450-474 | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | −$687 −57% | — |
| 582d | cipherpilot2 fills | 700+ | SellNo>99¢ | $11,334 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 582d |  Alterego-628 | 475-499 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$41 +4.1% | 21 |
| 582d | Agui | 450-474 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,402 | −$1,402 −100% | 30 |
| 582d | catasus | 425-449 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | −$1,020 −67% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and March 21, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 425-449 means the market gives it about 100%.