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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500-524 | 100% | +66 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <450 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | −40 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | −15 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-624 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625-649 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650-674 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 675-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-724 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 725-749 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 750-774 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 775-799 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 589d |  RiseAndSunny | 525-549 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | Bremmy | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,138 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 589d |  BigBlackGorilla2 fills | 550-574 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,139 | −$85 −2.7% | — |
| 589d | Hiohigs | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | RiseAndSunny | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,858 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | BunnyProfit | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,313 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | naeem95m | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,732 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | shlakbaum2 fills | 500-524 | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $5,028 | −$2,771 −55% | — |
| 589d | MyNameIsDarkKnight | 500-524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,198 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | kingbin2 fills | 500-524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,516 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d |  cbo34 | 500-524 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 589d | kingbin | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,528 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 589d | triban18 | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,949 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 589d |  UwO | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,509 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 589d | ni44i | 500-524 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,451 | −$18 −1.2% | — |
| 589d | Beikal | 500-524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,207 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 589d |  Gustav43 fills | 500-524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,964 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 525-549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,618 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 589d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 500-524 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,200 | +$312 +3.4% | 21 |
| 589d |  Prexpect | 500-524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,899 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d |  toskaniaparrty42 | 525-549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,240 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | Venividivici | 500-524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,606 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 589d | afaus | 525-549 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | −$19 −0.9% | — |
| 589d | glarity | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,786 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d |  EyesWideOpen911 | 500-524 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,775 | +$103 +1.2% | 20 |
| 589d | Happyjoe | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,184 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | BunnyProfit | 500-524 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,248 | +$68 +2.1% | 20 |
| 589d | JSDelphino | 575-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | RiseAndSunny2 fills | 525-549 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,393 | +$307 +9.0% | 22 |
| 589d | Gustav4 | 525-549 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | +$65 +3.1% | 20 |
| 589d | cigarettes3 fills | 550-574 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,461 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 589d | cigarettes2 fills | 525-549 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,215 | +$218 +6.8% | 20 |
| 589d |  Arlekinez | 500-524 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$35 +3.1% | 20 |
| 589d | Linnnnn | 500-524 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$31 +3.1% | 20 |
| 589d | RiseAndSunny | 500-524 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,728 | +$72 +4.2% | 20 |
| 589d |  fernando2 | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,228 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d |  Wiz92 | 500-524 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,354 | +$205 +8.7% | 20 |
| 589d |  item04 | 500-524 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,181 | +$211 +9.7% | 20 |
| 589d |  catasus | 575-599 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,659 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | triban18 | 500-524 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | +$247 +15% | 24 |
| 589d |  Yuugen2 fills | 500-524 | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $3,897 | −$5,526 −142% | — |
| 589d | naeem95m | 475-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,362 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | cigarettes | 575-599 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,052 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | Mahoro | 500-524 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,377 | −$997 −72% | — |
| 589d | PredictionYogi | 475-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | Gustav4 | 475-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,695 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 589d | kingbin12 fills | 475-499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $24,527 | +$437 +1.8% | 21 |
| 589d |  sushimon | 475-499 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 589d | afaus | 525-549 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$244 +22% | 26 |
| 589d |  Therealsmurf2 fills | 575-599 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,542 | +$238 +5.2% | 20 |
| 589d | AZwater3 fills | 550-574 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,665 | +$120 +1.4% | 20 |
| 589d | kingbin3 fills | 800+ | SellNo>99¢ | $12,887 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 589d |  lolboy4D | 500-524 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,491 | +$1,223 +49% | 30 |
| 589d | Therealsmurf | 475-499 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,747 | −$78 −2.8% | — |
| 589d | catasus | 525-549 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,580 | +$1,106 +43% | 30 |
| 589d | catasus3 fills | 550-574 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,019 | +$472 +4.3% | 21 |
| 589d | kingbin | 475-499 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,732 | −$23 −1.3% | — |
| 589d | afaus | 475-499 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,706 | −$284 −10% | — |
| 589d | catasus4 fills | 475-499 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,744 | −$806 −5.5% | — |
| 589d | lolboy4D2 fills | 475-499 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,638 | −$498 −7.5% | — |
Nanshan11 shares
uzybigbills6 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and March 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 500-524 means the market gives it about 100%.