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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-49 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <10 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 10-19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-29 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227d |  OraculumNobius | 40-49 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,542 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d |  Surfer3 | 40-49 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  Boss7 | 20-29 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,097 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  ke1pie | 20-29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,907 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d | Boss75 fills | 20-29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,055 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d |  badmoshbillu | 20-29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,443 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d | wonder434 | 60+ | BuyNo45¢ → 100¢ | $1,688 | +$2,063 +122% | 28 |
| 228d |  Siuuuuuuuuu | 10-19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,736 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | Siuuuuuuuuu | <10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,055 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | Nightfr | <10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,118 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | badmoshbillu | 10-19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 228d | Boss72 fills | <10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,291 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
ElonJail650 shares
bjprolo100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-49 means the market gives it about 100%.