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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 221d |  Boss7 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,366 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | justmileva | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Bankrupt-Loser | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,033 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | dudukos | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,077 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | WCWS | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,141 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | BinaryBaron | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,000 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Personal-Digging | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | 0x0b86…a714 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,734 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Ivan222 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,149 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  Gabbers | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,342 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,118 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | forestk | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,016 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  TweetPulse.Live | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,970 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  Annica8 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $26,486 | +$508 +1.9% | 21 |
| 221d | Ommamal | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,391 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | Darling-SociologyNew account | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 222d |  Mrbuzzlightyear | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,115 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 222d | TMAKA | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,351 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,957 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d |  dushen88 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,297 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Annica4 fills | 40-64 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $16,461 | −$1,153 −7.0% | — |
| 222d | LANTIBNG | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,003 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d |  Therealsmurf | 40-64 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,075 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 222d | influenz.eth4 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,002 | +$164 +3.3% | 21 |
| 222d | hyp888 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 222d | 50NXX | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,528 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 222d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,816 | +$17 +0.9% | 20 |
| 222d |  VCVIC | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,738 | −$26 −1.5% | — |
| 222d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$268 +6.7% | 22 |
| 222d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$186 +4.1% | 21 |
| 222d | mitikohalls2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,311 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d | mitikohalls | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,023 | +$61 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d | 0x0b86…a714 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,711 | +$23 +1.3% | 20 |
| 222d | hyp888 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | WCWS | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | +$25 +1.6% | 21 |
| 222d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,816 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Bankrupt-Loser | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$22 +2.1% | 21 |
| 222d | Alexdawn | 40-64 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | −$39 −2.9% | — |
| 222d | 0x6234 | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | +$31 +2.1% | 21 |
| 222d | 50NXX | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,514 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | mitikohalls | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,380 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | bipbipbop3 fills | 65-89 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,654 | −$846 −23% | — |
| 222d | influenz.eth3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,060 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | forestk | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,743 | +$280 +4.2% | 21 |
| 222d | AltJerem | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,320 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d |  DJB. | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,454 | −$16 −0.7% | — |
| 222d | Yanncll | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,447 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Ommamal | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,391 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Pungent-Almanac | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,024 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | WCWS | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | TMAKA | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $6,532 | +$646 +9.9% | 23 |
| 222d | bestwishes | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,718 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | argall | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$156 +12% | 24 |
| 222d | Suburban-Import | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,709 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Boss7 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,468 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,654 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,790 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | plsd23 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,234 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | First-Alpenhorn | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,273 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
S4sha2,000 shares
nimikm1,300 shares
Richgoddess21,100 shares
EUSOU1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.