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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210d |  DJB. | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,412 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  LeJoe | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,044 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Jasonzz | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Gabbers | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,162 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Ahinara | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,234 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Ahinara | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,018 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | dddtrips | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,267 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | GJLCS | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,496 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Zenef | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,370 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Papuasus | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,045 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Puzzling-Grabbag | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,746 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,244 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Surfer3 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | benben2026 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,079 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Poiuztrewq | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | darekdani | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,193 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | 0B06 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  all.in0828 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,073 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Elonurmom | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,980 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  KARMASUR | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,643 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  lata | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,538 | +$53 +0.5% | 20 |
| 210d |  sundogs2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,314 | +$151 +2.8% | 21 |
| 210d | Rickz88 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,804 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  Romeo005 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,120 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 210d | MelH2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,987 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 210d | influenz.eth2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,039 | +$160 +4.0% | 21 |
| 210d | Gustav4 | 260-279 | BuyYes100¢ | $2,935 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 210d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 210d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,115 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | knfnthx | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,050 | +$34 +1.1% | 20 |
| 210d | Bankrupt-Loser | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,481 | +$35 +1.4% | 20 |
| 210d | Bankrupt-Loser | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,481 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | 0xf328…2b78 | 260-279 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,589 | −$47 −1.8% | — |
| 211d | ANITA2026 | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,691 | +$35 +2.0% | 21 |
| 211d | Jasonzz | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | +$22 +2.0% | 21 |
| 211d | NrNrfNrf2 | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | +$26 +2.1% | 21 |
| 211d | loke00 | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 211d | hyp888 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,580 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | 1352 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,443 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | vietnamwar | 260-279 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,256 | −$135 −6.0% | — |
| 211d |  suraxy | 260-279 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$118 −11% | — |
| 211d | geraldhew89 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 211d | geraldhew89 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,508 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | 4ever3. | 260-279 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$90 +7.6% | 22 |
| 211d | 0x5b63…30d5 | 280-299 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | −$181 −12% | — |
| 211d | bipbipbop | 260-279 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$142 −13% | — |
| 211d | bipbipbop4 fills | 280-299 | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $5,172 | −$1,831 −35% | — |
| 211d | influenz.eth | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,161 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 211d | Houdray | 260-279 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,759 | +$212 +7.7% | 22 |
| 211d | may501 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,381 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 211d | Ahinara | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,724 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 211d | ankandrop | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,040 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 211d |  upont | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,828 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | 0xcf0d…1081 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,366 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 211d | FieryPhoenix | 260-279 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,679 | +$251 +15% | 24 |
| 211d | NrNrfNrf2 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,719 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.